Sunday, April 5, 2020. Very sure about this data.
After finding myself down the rabbit hole of cable news programming late yesterday afternoon, I am still focused on leadership. I continued to be awed by Anthony Fauci. He is a bright light in a realm of darkness. History, I hope, will remember him kindly.
Thus, instead of commentary today, I offer an article sent by the (in)famous Christina Ai Chang on leadership:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-the-coronavirus-crisis-deputies-are-the-leaders-we-turn-to-11585972802?emailToken=0098d32d206f4bd88d25814baa56f35a75XmRjBic1LrgV1ad2mYV99eLWLBX1x7SVr70Gp7CzdRU7m0tmZO0tsW/VxlP2PzGUcJhtm1KZkppZqFzffGyEHIPrLLjPiHiSAm5LDqwMnewfdR9xhIUYTo5I15XcUl&reflink=article_imessage_share
--------
FT is still leading with the 7-day rolling death average; the daily confirmed case rate is lower on the page.
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Keenan followed up on the articles regarding modeling with a very helpful (though sobering) predictive model website
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
This article is a good summation of why I find all the counting to be so problematic. You can't count what you don't measure. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/
And we didn't measure
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/04/04/coronavirus-government-dysfunction/?arc404=true
But, more testing is coming. Here is approval for one of the Point of Care (POC) ELISA testing kits I spoke about
https://www.mdedge.com/internalmedicine/article/220225/coronavirus-updates/fda-grants-emergency-authorization-first-rapid
In China and Hong Kong, keeping track of PUI and COVID+ via phone and app is a thing. An Orwellian thing, to be sure, but probably necessary for this. It is a different thing to proactively look for people to screen via aberrant physiologic parameters from IoT devices.
https://www.wbal.com/article/444198/181/researchers-investigate-whether-wearable-apps-could-unveil-hidden-coronavirus-cases
Here is a very comprehensive article (from Medscape, to which each of you has a login now, right?!?) on all of the RANDOMIZED controlled trials going on. Useful data takes time. It is foolish to actively endorse a particular treatment in the absence of sound knowledge. https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/928094
HCQ continues to have contradicting data emerging from non-controlled case series. The fact is we don't know. It is SO tempting to want to believe the anecdotes. BUT, resist the dark side - there is a massive downside to going all-in on a therapy that may turn out not to work. But here is the conundrum - I think many of us would want to try this if we got sick. And it highlights the problem of operating in a world without good data - the trade-offs of unproven therapy may be good enough to justify trying at an individual level (especially in desperate times), but are not good enough to make it standard of care. That is part of the tension you see playing out.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0399077X20300858?via%3Dihub
And, as you would expect, there are all sorts of craziness in the social media universe. Here is the least bad I found in the last 24 hours.
https://twitter.com/niro60487270
A positive update on a COVID patient
https://twitter.com/DavidLat
Here is a highly technical article, but the kind of work researchers are doing. It describes a highly similar protein sequence on both the SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV2. One implication of this: despite the rapid mutation in coronaviruses, there are parts of their protein coat that could be used as antigens and confer a higher likelihood of long-term vaccine-based immunity.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/02/science.abb7269
I can't tell if this story is real or satire. Either way, it made me laugh and cry. (oh yeah, you can keep your N95s. We're making N96s!).
https://www.blogto.com/city/2020/04/n96-masks/
If you do not have epidemic story fatigue, this is a very well-written overview of historical plagues and their impact.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/06/pandemics-and-the-shape-of-human-history
-----
Big Bonus Round - Things to Occupy a Sunday edition
I am both sad and happy to find a myriad of tips on how to run a virtual seder. I did not expect to find such advice in USA today.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/04/03/coronavirus-passover-virtual-seders-zoom-column/5106887002/
https://forward.com/life/443056/you-can-do-it-your-guide-to-hosting-or-attending-a-virtual-passover-seder/
And for the sake of balance, I offer a link to Southern Living magazine on virtual Easter Egg hunts. https://www.southernliving.com/easter/virtual-easter-egg-hunt
Nikon School is offering free photo classes. Bearing in mind that it is sometimes an ad for Nikon equipment, the photo principles taught are accessible to both novice and experienced photographers. I enjoyed the one I watched.
https://www.lightstalking.com/nikon-school-videos-streaming-for-free-all-month-long/
And weekly photo challenges from Digital Photography School to employ your newfound skills:
https://digital-photography-school.com/weekly-photography-challenge-kitchen/
Lots of to-watch lists:
Top 40 on Netflix from the New Yorker
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-front-row/what-to-stream-forty-of-the-best-movies-on-netflix-right-now
I ended up with a year of Apple TV+ with an iPhone purchase. I am most of the way through Little America. It is quaint and heartwarming, even if it is a little self-indulgent and sentimental. Overall, I have been surprised by the quality of the shows.
https://www.thrillist.com/entertainment/nation/apple-tv-shows-original-programming
And let's not forget Amazon Prime. Here is a pretty comprehensive list that seems to jive with (at least) my sensibilities.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/movies/best-shows-on-amazon-prime/
Clean Hands and Sharp Minds.
-Adam
After finding myself down the rabbit hole of cable news programming late yesterday afternoon, I am still focused on leadership. I continued to be awed by Anthony Fauci. He is a bright light in a realm of darkness. History, I hope, will remember him kindly.
Thus, instead of commentary today, I offer an article sent by the (in)famous Christina Ai Chang on leadership:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-the-coronavirus-crisis-deputies-are-the-leaders-we-turn-to-11585972802?emailToken=0098d32d206f4bd88d25814baa56f35a75XmRjBic1LrgV1ad2mYV99eLWLBX1x7SVr70Gp7CzdRU7m0tmZO0tsW/VxlP2PzGUcJhtm1KZkppZqFzffGyEHIPrLLjPiHiSAm5LDqwMnewfdR9xhIUYTo5I15XcUl&reflink=article_imessage_share
--------
FT is still leading with the 7-day rolling death average; the daily confirmed case rate is lower on the page.
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Keenan followed up on the articles regarding modeling with a very helpful (though sobering) predictive model website
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
This article is a good summation of why I find all the counting to be so problematic. You can't count what you don't measure. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/
And we didn't measure
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/04/04/coronavirus-government-dysfunction/?arc404=true
But, more testing is coming. Here is approval for one of the Point of Care (POC) ELISA testing kits I spoke about
https://www.mdedge.com/internalmedicine/article/220225/coronavirus-updates/fda-grants-emergency-authorization-first-rapid
In China and Hong Kong, keeping track of PUI and COVID+ via phone and app is a thing. An Orwellian thing, to be sure, but probably necessary for this. It is a different thing to proactively look for people to screen via aberrant physiologic parameters from IoT devices.
https://www.wbal.com/article/444198/181/researchers-investigate-whether-wearable-apps-could-unveil-hidden-coronavirus-cases
Here is a very comprehensive article (from Medscape, to which each of you has a login now, right?!?) on all of the RANDOMIZED controlled trials going on. Useful data takes time. It is foolish to actively endorse a particular treatment in the absence of sound knowledge. https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/928094
HCQ continues to have contradicting data emerging from non-controlled case series. The fact is we don't know. It is SO tempting to want to believe the anecdotes. BUT, resist the dark side - there is a massive downside to going all-in on a therapy that may turn out not to work. But here is the conundrum - I think many of us would want to try this if we got sick. And it highlights the problem of operating in a world without good data - the trade-offs of unproven therapy may be good enough to justify trying at an individual level (especially in desperate times), but are not good enough to make it standard of care. That is part of the tension you see playing out.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0399077X20300858?via%3Dihub
And, as you would expect, there are all sorts of craziness in the social media universe. Here is the least bad I found in the last 24 hours.
https://twitter.com/niro60487270
A positive update on a COVID patient
https://twitter.com/DavidLat
Here is a highly technical article, but the kind of work researchers are doing. It describes a highly similar protein sequence on both the SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV2. One implication of this: despite the rapid mutation in coronaviruses, there are parts of their protein coat that could be used as antigens and confer a higher likelihood of long-term vaccine-based immunity.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/02/science.abb7269
I can't tell if this story is real or satire. Either way, it made me laugh and cry. (oh yeah, you can keep your N95s. We're making N96s!).
https://www.blogto.com/city/2020/04/n96-masks/
If you do not have epidemic story fatigue, this is a very well-written overview of historical plagues and their impact.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/06/pandemics-and-the-shape-of-human-history
-----
Big Bonus Round - Things to Occupy a Sunday edition
I am both sad and happy to find a myriad of tips on how to run a virtual seder. I did not expect to find such advice in USA today.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/04/03/coronavirus-passover-virtual-seders-zoom-column/5106887002/
https://forward.com/life/443056/you-can-do-it-your-guide-to-hosting-or-attending-a-virtual-passover-seder/
And for the sake of balance, I offer a link to Southern Living magazine on virtual Easter Egg hunts. https://www.southernliving.com/easter/virtual-easter-egg-hunt
Nikon School is offering free photo classes. Bearing in mind that it is sometimes an ad for Nikon equipment, the photo principles taught are accessible to both novice and experienced photographers. I enjoyed the one I watched.
https://www.lightstalking.com/nikon-school-videos-streaming-for-free-all-month-long/
And weekly photo challenges from Digital Photography School to employ your newfound skills:
https://digital-photography-school.com/weekly-photography-challenge-kitchen/
Lots of to-watch lists:
Top 40 on Netflix from the New Yorker
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-front-row/what-to-stream-forty-of-the-best-movies-on-netflix-right-now
I ended up with a year of Apple TV+ with an iPhone purchase. I am most of the way through Little America. It is quaint and heartwarming, even if it is a little self-indulgent and sentimental. Overall, I have been surprised by the quality of the shows.
https://www.thrillist.com/entertainment/nation/apple-tv-shows-original-programming
And let's not forget Amazon Prime. Here is a pretty comprehensive list that seems to jive with (at least) my sensibilities.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/movies/best-shows-on-amazon-prime/
Clean Hands and Sharp Minds.
-Adam
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