Week of March 17, 2025
Recently, Amazon delivered an unexpected box of 25 small rubber Jesus figures to my house. The mysterious gift's note stated, "For the doctor that has everything, except a crazy amount of Jesus figures. What a better way to say THANKS! From Guess Who." The real gift, it turned out, was the process of uncovering Guess Who's identity. Asking family, friends, colleagues, and some of my (more entertaining) patients if they were the source of the bulk messiah gift spawned a series of entertaining, multi-day conversations. I am grateful to know so many people who would anonymously send me such a gift.
Twenty-five Jesus figures created some practical grammar problems, leading to even more conversations around the correct pleural form of Jesus (Jesuses is the least bad answer) and the appropriate collective noun (for which another friend suggested a 'prophet' of Jesuses). Guess Who, who it turns out is a loyal reader I have known since 3rd grade, truly gave a gift that kept giving.
You can have a prophet of little Jesuses, too:
https://www.amazon.com/Bememo-Figures-Original-Religious-Stuffers/dp/B0D6KB1FSQ/
Here are mine:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zzgOlG3GChZTRQbbsiskQppEW3kQH1FC/view
and
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RzjIX9dNHprUH4gu89a8CRZ_-rdvPyjY/view
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Listen to a Google Notebook LM A.I.-generated podcast of the newsletter with two virtual "hosts."
This week, the AI hosts have difficulty distinguishing between me, the author, and themselves. The male voice appears to be speaking as though he is me. At least one of us (me or the male AI voice) is having an existential crisis.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KEmPqY_PqJLz7Nv_NbHcy6yinYS3ZcW8/view
About NotebookLM: https://blog.google/technology/ai/notebooklm-audio-overviews/
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Science and Technology Trends
While this study has flaws, it is an excellent example of anthropomorphic bias. Researchers investigated how contextual factors influence human perceptions of dogs' emotional states. Over 800 participants rated videos of dogs in various situations, both with and without a broader context of what was happening. Situational context, rather than the dog's actual behavior, heavily influenced participant perceptions of dog emotions. The findings suggest humans heavily rely on context to interpret dogs' emotional states. In other words, we probably aren't as attuned to our pets as we think.
Summary:
https://claude.site/artifacts/588977a0-b6d1-4597-809e-131d95fc288e
Original Article:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08927936.2025.2469400
I found it referenced in the New York Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/10/science/dogs-pets-emotions.html?unlocked_article_code=1.4E4.ORut.cEP7J7ZmG3zS&smid=url-share
The change in HIV AIDS from a lethal disease to a chronic illness was one of the most impressive developments I witnessed in my career. It is increasingly likely HIV will be a preventable virus thanks to once or twice-a-year injectable, long-acting antiretroviral agents. Here is the latest data from pharmacokinetic studies on lenacapavir, the injectable antiviral drug used to prevent HIV infection before exposure.
https://x.com/DrSamuelBHume/status/1901335507507777718
and
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)00405-2/abstract
Last week, I came across this X post highlighting a 2013 study: "Chewing gum boosts cerebral blood flow and can activate key brain regions linked to focus. Over a 30-minute task, chewing gum sustains focus, slows performance decline, and speeds up reaction time."
https://x.com/brandonluumd/status/1899052572897419359
Digging into PubMed, I found a surprisingly voluminous amount of scientific research about chewing gum (of varying quality). Rather than review it all, I asked Google's Gemini Deep Research to generate a 2-3 page research report with references and tables covering the "Scientific Studies on the Possible Performance-Enhancing Effects of Chewing Gum."
Gemini's conclusion was enlightening: "The scientific literature suggests that chewing gum can have several performance-enhancing effects, particularly in cognitive function, physical activity, and mood. Chewing gum appears to enhance alertness and sustained attention, potentially leading to improved productivity in work settings. Caffeinated chewing gum has demonstrated effectiveness as an ergogenic aid, improving endurance, sprinting, and strength while reducing the perception of exertion. Even non-caffeinated chewing may benefit reaction time and postural stability in physical activities. Furthermore, chewing gum has been linked to reduced stress and anxiety, contributing to an improved sense of well-being." You will have to read the full conclusion for more detail, but my childhood vision of blank-faced teenagers mindlessly chewing gum at the mall may be inaccurate.
Here is the 3-page AI research report with forty-three (43!) references and a table of data:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1mvCGRjK2TCUpXi-NgRY8XCTW6abmSDcGN9RGh3EFAak/edit?usp=sharing
Anti- Anti-Science Articles of Note
It is an excellent time to explore measles, vaccines, and my favorite logical fallacies about vaccines.
It is important to remember just how contagious measles is. The epidemiologic concepts of R0 (an infectious organism's reproduction number in a population with NO immunity ) and Re (the effective reproduction number in a population with some immunity) describe a virus or bacteria's ability to spread between humans. A lower number is better. For reference, the R0 of SARS-CoV-2 (at the beginning of the pandemic) was 1.5 to 2.5 - meaning that for every person infected in early 2020, COVID spread to 1.5 to 2.5 additional people. In comparison, measles has an R0 of 13-15. It is one of the most contagious human diseases.
Here is a good summary of these concepts from 2021.
https://www.news-medical.net/health/What-is-R0.aspx
When measles spreads in unvaccinated individuals - in this instance, newborns in Texas - it is tough to contain:
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/texas-measles-outbreak-hospital-newborn-babies-exposed-rcna196519
I have seen questions about the durability of immune protection from the measles vaccine and what, if anything, previously vaccinated individuals should do. Epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina wrote this fabulous FAQ-style measles vaccine (MMR) overview. Generally speaking, individuals who received the MMR vaccine are likely safe, but mileage varies by age, the type of MMR vaccine received, and immune status.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-159018433
Given the MMR vaccine's fantastic protection, I wanted to highlight Dr. Jess Steier's 3/4/25 post, "How Mathematical Manipulation and Statistical Misuse Create Dangerous Misinformation About Vaccine Safety." More than just amplifying typical loss aversion and present bias fallacies, Steier refutes a recent spate of social media posts misrepresenting data and asserting that "vaccines are more dangerous than the diseases they prevent."
https://theunbiasedscipod.substack.com/p/debunking-a-viral-vaccine-misinformation
Bonus! Listen to Epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina discuss the state of U.S. epidemiology in light of the layoffs at CDC and HHS.
https://erictopol.substack.com/p/public-health-in-the-us
Living with AI.
Google DeepMind released versions of Gemini LLM to support robotics. "Gemini Robotics, an advanced vision-language-action (VLA) model that was built on Gemini 2.0 with the addition of physical actions as a new output modality for the purpose of directly controlling robots. The second is Gemini Robotics-ER, a Gemini model with advanced spatial understanding, enabling roboticists to run their own programs using Gemini's embodied reasoning (ER) abilities." It almost seems quaint and wonder-filled (until it won't be).
https://youtu.be/4MvGnmmP3c0?si=PVUe5VKX_zItJRXM
from
https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/gemini-robotics-brings-ai-into-the-physical-world/
Infographics
The New York Times published an interactive infographic exploring how the pandemic impacted many areas of life. Or, as the authors put it, "Decades from now, the pandemic will be visible in the historical data of nearly anything measurable today: an unmistakable spike, dip or jolt that officially began for Americans five years ago this week. Here's an incomplete collection of charts that capture that break — across the economy, health care, education, work, family life and more."
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/09/upshot/covid-lockdown-five-year-charts.html?unlocked_article_code=1.4U4.vMua.kt8suWZVaQla&smid=url-share
Things I learned this week
While not new learning, per se, I found an article reinforcing that humans do not heed the lessons from our best science fiction: "De-extinction startup Colossal Biosciences has gene-edited mice to have mammoth-like features, creating what the company calls the Colossal Woolly Mouse." [Insert slippery slope/life finds a way warnings here.] Perhaps the resurrected dinosaurs and mammals can fight the AI robots we are building?
https://www.wired.com/story/scientists-just-created-a-woolly-mouse-with-mammoth-like-fur/
and
"Birth of rodent with coat genetically modified to resemble the extinct species raises big ethical and conservation concerns."
https://www.science.org/content/article/mouse-mammoth-s-pelt-makes-superfuzzy-debut
Thanks to a soon-to-be loyal reader, I learned about Ashiarai Yashiki, a supernatural "being" from Japanese folklore. This entity manifests as a gigantic, disembodied foot that crashes through the roof of a home, demanding to be washed. If the occupants respectfully clean the foot, the foot leaves peacefully. Ignoring or refusing the request results in the foot becoming enraged and wreaking havoc in the house.
https://matthewmeyer.net/blog/2017/10/20/a-yokai-a-day-ashiarai-yashiki/
AI art of the week.
(A visual mashup of topics from the newsletter, now using ChatGPT to summarize the newsletter, suggest prompts, and make the images).
Prompt:
"A surreal city street scene inspired by early 20th-century painters known for floating figures, vibrant colors, and dreamlike distortions. A procession of tiny rubber Jesuses floats through the air, led by a bewildered doctor in a white lab coat. Above them, a massive, supernatural foot crashes through a dreamy, colorful sky, demanding to be washed. In the background, a woolly mouse with mammoth-like fur faces off against an AI-powered robotic dog, both surrounded by swirling, fantastical lights. The scene is whimsical, surreal, and full of vibrant movement, resembling a dreamlike painting from the early 20th century."
See how text-to-image generators compare.
DALL-E:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/141ECvyuAJfRXwwW1BqaV9PyytXKQM0r2/view
Grok:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1XP1BcJ3Zt0NVMSBar6IeGeXf5jAUowZu/view
Gemini Imagen 3:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J0qpueDR2nWK5lrGlw3tjHcPf8anaZjz/view
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COVID rates are plateauing - possibly trending back up. Norovirus, RSV, and Flu are still in high concentrations in wastewater.
The Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) website uses wastewater levels to forecast 4-week predictions of COVID rates.
https://pmc19.com/data/
based upon https://biobot.io/data/
Wastewater Scan offers a multi-organism wastewater dashboard with an excellent visual display of individual treatment plant-level data.
https://data.wastewaterscan.org/
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Clean hands and sharp minds,
Adam
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