Week of June 9, 2025
Last week, our family celebrated my wife's and my 50th birthdays in Italy. The trip was a mix of celebration, history, culture, and existential crisis (answering the question, "Is 50-year-old Adam able to bike Tuscan hills?" Answer: mostly, but only with an e-bike.) Either way, weeks of not writing, combined with six days of 40-50 km bike rides, provided ample time for reflection. As such, I offer you (late middle-aged?!?) musings formed during bike seat-induced discomforts (including, but not limited to, chafing and uncomfortably numb body parts):
- Long meals, the absence of a tipping culture, and afternoon siestas are fantastic. (However, I found it challenging to sit at lunch for more than 90 minutes. What does this say about me?)
- Much of my joy in life stems from interacting with others. Humor and connection are far more challenging when my vocabulary shrinks to "please, thank you, and excuse me." [Corollary - I should have learned more Italian.]
- Giving my college-aged kids prolonged, uninterrupted time with me (especially when they are the only people near me who speak English fluently) unlocks a myriad of suggestions on ways I can improve (but feedback is a gift, right?).
- International in-flight entertainment systems should have video channels dedicated to orienting Americans to non-American things (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nt_XsRB6nfo - instructions on bidet usage). Free-standing bidet use is just one of many things that made me feel culturally ignorant.
Either way, we had a fantastic time. I am grateful to have taken such a trip, and it's good to be back with a newfound appreciation for 10-minute lunches at my desk.
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Listen to a Google Notebook LM A.I.-generated podcast of the newsletter with two virtual "hosts."
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1l2QXnKVXnlM25gOVmVJTWQMLQDemsGYr/view
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Science and Technology Trends
National Geographic published an interesting article on the commonly misunderstood concept of the "Butterfly Effect." The writing encapsulates a combination of mild irony (the butterfly effect blossomed into an extensive series of movies, comments, and memes via a quasi-butterfly effect) and logical fallacy - the common misapplication of the idea, often conflating association and causation. "While the effect [describes] how small changes in complex systems can lead to dramatically different outcomes, it doesn't mean a butterfly's wings can literally cause a tornado thousands of miles away." NatGeo offered a good read on this commonly referenced concept.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/real-butterfly-effect-chaos-theory. [Paywall - you can sign in with a Disney+ subscription.]
AI Summary: https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/2daf537e-9e80-4fa3-9abf-9b7f0a3a36a2
Neuralink has competitors, and one of them, Paradromics, conducted its first implant trial (but then removed the device). The linked Wired article below is an excellent overview of the brain-computer interface (BCI) market.
https://www.wired.com/story/paradromics-neuralink-rival-tested-brain-implant/
AI Summary of the article: https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/ed84d475-17c0-4fa6-824b-a8b0c11ae2ab
I found yet more comforting data on coffee! Analysis of the Nurses Health Study population data (47,000 individuals followed for 30 years with every 4-year validated food frequency questionnaires) found that higher caffeine consumption (mainly in the form of coffee) led to a higher likelihood of healthy aging - defined as "Living to age 70+, free from 11 major chronic diseases, maintaining physical function, good mental health, no cognitive impairment, and no memory complaints." Moreover, "The researchers did not find any significant association between drinking decaffeinated coffee or tea with an increased likelihood of healthy aging. Importantly, [soda]—another source of caffeine—was associated with a 20% to 26% lower likelihood of healthy aging, reinforcing that not all sources of caffeine confer benefits."
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1084789
AI Summary:
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/0f7b4858-45e6-4235-a99d-229391c1c0ca
Anti- Anti-Science Articles of Note
The Department of Health and Human Services released the "Make America Healthy Again" report in late May. A good description of what the report contains was published by MedPage Today:
https://www.medpagetoday.com/publichealthpolicy/washington-watch/115723
Dr. Ellie Murray, an epidemiologist whose work I follow, has provided a comprehensive four-part analysis of the report. Dr. Murray identifies numerous logical fallacies and data discrepancies. The New York Times found non-existent studies (as in, it appears the report writers used an LLM that generated fake references).
The report's misuse of data is striking. Overall, this report reads more like a conclusion seeking justification rather than an understanding of existing data (i.e., confirmation bias and cherry-picking). Ironically, considering budget cuts and other administrative changes, our governmental health leaders will have difficulty acting based on the report's conclusions. (For instance, who and/or what can be done about American children's pervasive technology use? Who will pay for the re-evaluation of placebo-controlled vaccine trials? Who will regulate and enforce reducing chemical exposure or the ingredients in our food supply?). The sad part is that there is data to support some of the assertions (for instance, there is some evidence regarding the health consequences of consuming ultra-processed food), and the notion of a healthier population is meritorious.
Overall review: https://epiellie.substack.com/
Part 1 https://epiellie.substack.com/p/the-maha-report-i-read-it-so-you
and I strongly recommend reading part 4, discussing the failure of the report to identify survivorship bias:
https://epiellie.substack.com/p/the-maha-report-dead-kids-dont-get
and
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/29/well/maha-report-citations.html
and
A 2024 consumer-focused review on ultra-processed food from Yale
https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/ultraprocessed-foods-bad-for-you
Living with AI.
While in Italy, I used ChatGPT in regional museums with limited English signage and details. What started as a "What is this?" line of questions and answers turned into a far more robust discussion of the artifacts and exhibits. I enjoyed the LLM offering fictional, 1st-person narratives, speculating about the lives of the people who owned or made the objects.
Here is an example:
Sharing a picture of a fresco and its label with ChatGPT generated a robust discussion of the item:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rutewzUT0ypUeKcRdL44RN3Aavh6wmuH/view
The discussion evolves with the offer to help me better understand the life of the fresco craftsman:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NrD_nI4EbB_C-jd8kmP4NXwxFK5xeJMv/view
While the LLM introduces biases and intellectual failings, the higher degree of engagement and humanization that it brings to what could have been a very sterile experience seems a worthy trade-off. Sure enough, I am far from alone in using AI to supplement museum visits:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09647775.2025.2467703#abstract
Standford researchers analyzed medical billing data to estimate the prevalence of AI tool use in healthcare between 2019 and 2023. "AI device adoption is still nascent, with most usage driven by a handful of leading devices. For example, only AI devices used for assessing coronary artery disease and for diagnosing diabetic retinopathy have accumulated more than 10,000 CPT claims. Moreover, zip codes that had a higher income level, were metropolitan, and had academic medical centers were much more likely to have medical AI usage." While this study has many imperfections - it is retrospective, it captures only procedures for which AI is billed (and not, for instance, times when AI is part of a medical tool or process - like decision support) and does not cover 2024 and 2025 (billing data sets typically have 18-24 month lag) it is still a valuable snapshot of what is going on.
https://ai.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/AIoa2300030
AI summary: https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/754397df-a87f-4259-be2f-47d0779cfdef
Infographics
I did not expect National Geographic to be the single most followed brand on social media. Everyone loves compelling pictures of animals.
https://www.qualtrics.com/m/assets/blog/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/brands-most-followers-7_c.png
from
https://www.qualtrics.com/blog/brand-followers-on-social-media/
Things I learned this week
The politics of pigeons. The algorithm gods felt I needed to know more about pigeons (I must have been making comments about them on vacation). I learned that pigeons are domesticated rock doves, initially used for navigation and communication. However, over the last 50-100 years, their "obsolescence" (for human use) has left them as a nuisance and subject to abuse. I must admit that I have never given pigeons this much thought - my focus is typically on avoiding being the target of pigeon droppings.
https://voiceskopje.org/2024/03/13/pigeons-mans-forgotten-best-friend/
and
https://nypost.com/2025/04/14/us-news/brooklyn-pet-store-owner-accused-of-kidnapping-nyc-pigeons-selling-them-as-live-shooting-targets/
and
https://www.audubon.org/news/those-pigeons-wearing-cowboy-hats-theyre-no-laughing-matter
My favorite headlines I found this week:
"The T.S.A. is reminding travelers that Costco cards are not on their own going to get you through security - You Can't fly on hot dogs and hope," (Apparently, TSA social media was trying to be funny.) However, there are people on Reddit who periodically recommend Costco cards as an alternative form of identification if you have no other valid ID.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/08/travel/costco-tsa-real-id.html?unlocked_article_code=1.NU8.c2Xw.3SoJ15jXUqXc&smid=url-share
"Runaway zebra's wild adventure comes to an end after dramatic helicopter rescue."
https://www.foxnews.com/us/runaway-zebras-wild-adventure-comes-end-after-dramatic-helicopter-rescue
AI art of the week
AI summarized and prompted images from topics in the newsletter:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vDmCyQ0cKHAE3VbPYCH2_iQNjhJDshRV/view?usp=sharing
"A medieval-style fresco shows Saint Adam, a reflective, middle-aged man with a beard and short hair, riding through Tuscany on a golden e-bike, wearing a red-orange robe with peony patterns. Surrounded by two angelic figures, the scene is set against a sunset landscape, framed by a Gothic arch inscribed with Latin, while three humorous panels below recount moments of Saint Adam's everyday life."
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Last week, wastewater data indicated a COVID-19 infection rate of 1 person out of 211 in the United States. Other infectious diseases also had low concentrations in wastewater (see links below).
The Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) website utilizes wastewater levels to forecast four-week predictions of COVID-19 rates.
https://pmc19.com/data/
based upon https://biobot.io/data/
Wastewater Scan offers a multi-organism wastewater dashboard with an excellent visual display of individual treatment plant-level data.
https://data.wastewaterscan.org/
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Clean hands and sharp minds,
Adam
Relive all the thrills and excitement - The What Adam is Reading Archive
http://www.whatadamisreading.com/
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